Starting now.
Commonalities where guests find common ground through uncommon
conversations, politics, religion, finances,
all the topics your grandmother told you not to discuss with friends.
And now your host, Matthew Dowling,
and today's guests on commonalities.
Hey, thank you for joining us today on commonalities. I'm your host,
Matt Dowling, alongside today's guest, Noah Healy.
He's a professional algorithm de developer and a recreational
mathematician. And if you're like me,
you're probably wondering what is a recreational mathematician and,
and what do they do? Uh,
but he's quickly become an expert on game theory and designing
marketplaces, uh, building on breakthrough,
merging physics and mathematics. In the 20th century,
he's developed and, uh,
has a patent pending on a system to supersede commodity
markets. Now, a lot of this may be over our, uh,
our viewers' heads, but we'll make sure that we, uh,
we keep our conversations today to, uh,
to a point to where everyone can understand. And if you know you have questions,
you can visit my website commonalities.online. We'll put,
uh, the answers to any of the questions that you have up there.
Following today's interview, Noah, thank you so much for, uh,
taking the time to join me and my guest today. Uh,
why don't you go ahead and do a little bit of a self introduction for, uh,
those that don't know you.
Well. Sure, Matthew, and thanks for having me here. Uh, you hit the,
you hit the high points in, in your introduction, um, but, uh,
answer sort of your, your first question there.
Recreational mathematics is just mathematics that you do for fun.
Um, it's, uh,
it's a pursuit that's existed for millennia. Uh,
there's a great deal of intellectual satisfaction to be
had in puzzle solving and so on.
And what this does is simply transfers the puzzles from
trying to work out, uh,
a preset thing that another person came up with to puzzles that are
evident in the very structure of reason
itself.
Sure. So, uh, you know, I, I don't want to jump too far ahead, but, uh,
I was very interested in reading about you that you have come up with kind
of an out of the box idea, uh,
a method that is patent pending that's going to supersede commodity market.
So maybe we should start by discussing what commodity markets are,
and then let's talk about your method and, uh,
and how it supersedes the commodity, commodity markets as a whole.
Okay. Uh, well, commodities are products of uniform quality.
Uh, and so they're sort of like McDonald's hamburgers, um,
crate loads of steel, uh, truckloads of corn,
things like that have been commodified. Um,
milk, you go into the grocery store, 2% milk is 2% milk, pretty much even flour,
sugar, all the way, things like that. Precisely. Yeah. Um,
and also things like lumber. Um, yes, specific, you know,
when you're, when you're pulling 'em off, off the rack in the yard,
you want check for twist and stuff like that.
But if you're buying in bulk,
you buy in board feet and you just get what you get. Um,
so by creating these things that are basically all the same as one
another,
we get the efficiencies that allow our sort of modern economy to
function,
because otherwise you'd have to be personally cognizant
of every single sugar farmer on earth to figure out whether you like
this guy's sugar or that guy's sugar.
And you'd never be able to make a factory that, you know,
cranks out Coca-Cola or buy a bag
to make cookies for, you know, Christmas or whatever. Um,
so this commodification simplifies the task
for both producers because they no longer have to go through the
work of creating a specific brand that they then have to market
against the backdrop of many other people that are all trying to
produce what is more or less exactly the same thing, um,
but also simplify things for consumers because they don't need to investigate
the sort of past history of where this particular hunk of
steel or this particular bag of flour comes from,
because it's a bag of flour and it's part of the system that's just guaranteeing
a, a quality level there. Uh,
and what that enables is these very efficient marketplaces where people are
buying and selling copies of more or less the same thing,
but from many different sources and to many different destinations,
and that those sorts of markets have been in use for centuries Now,
um, where,
where I step in is that computers
basically have been giving the people operating these markets
and operating within these markets as middlemen more of a boost
than they've been giving those, those edge users, the,
the producers on the one hand,
and the consumers who are typically companies that we would actually interact
with as consumers ourselves. Um,
and so what that has ha caused is that these markets are becoming less
stable and more expensive. Um,
and we can see some of the instability in supply
chain disruptions, uh,
in how inflation is moving into food pricing and so on.
Um,
and what my system does is, uh,
creates a new role, uh,
within the marketplace for information and,
and effectively fixes the cost of information to the whole
marketplace, um,
by being able to adjust the rate of return. So right now,
if you know stuff that other people don't know,
you can trade in ways that will give you, uh,
a good rate of return in the marketplace. Uh,
and so your goal is to trade as much as possible on a fairly low rate of
return to get as much money as you can.
What my system does is raises the rate of return,
but fixes the total amount of advantage that can
be gained.
And so what happens is the incentive shifts from trying
to get as much deal flow and noise into the market as possible
as trying to communicate what you know as clearly, succinctly,
and quickly as possible so that you get to secure the advantage
over other parties.
Sure. So, you know, we just, uh, ended the holiday season, or we're still, uh,
kind of celebrating the holidays. And in my area, there are a number of,
um, of women or individuals, people, regardless of,
of gender that, uh,
that bake Christmas cookies and sell those Christmas cookies to, uh,
other families or individuals around the holiday time.
One of the things that we saw this year was that those individuals that, uh,
kind of count on that extra money at the holiday season in the middle of winter,
uh,
by selling those cookies were kind of almost forced out of their own marketplace
because they use commodities like sugar, um,
flour, nuts, or something that have become extremely expensive,
um, in the baking that they do. So how would your system,
um, solve any of the problems that those individuals are dealing with,
uh, because commodity prices have have risen, uh,
especially since the pandemic. Um,
would your system make things less expensive or adjust,
uh, the pricing, uh, any, any more than the commodities market system that,
that we have in place now?
So what my system would do is reduce the overhead costs,
and those are multifarious. So for example,
one of the most overhead costed commodities in the world for several decades
was aluminum, um,
where people had figured out this way to effectively
hold up the entire aluminum market behind a, a rule.
Um,
that meant that if you actually wanted the aluminum that you'd bought delivered
to you, then you had to pay, I believe it was an extra 21%. Um,
so if you're one of these women that's getting Christmas cookies and wrapping
them up in aluminum foil over the last, uh,
couple decades, um,
something like 25% of the money that you spent on aluminum was going to
these middlemen, um, that were just brokering the deal between,
uh, aluminum miners and,
and the manufacturers of the, the sheet metal that you were buying. Um,
in other industries,
we see things that are not really as extreme as that,
but overhead costs are still close to,
uh, or a large fraction of production costs.
And so what my system would do by reducing these overhead costs is it would
make production much more attractive,
and by then drawing more people into the farming space,
supply would increase, and those, those costs would come down.
Um, the other shift that it,
it should enable is regularization of price. Um,
one of the things I myself, uh, make fruitcake during the holiday season,
um, as many as 40 pounds some years, uh,
eggs went from about 9 cents a piece in my local markets.
Um, that was,
that was in late November to 25 cents a piece by mid-December.
Um, and there's more than one egg per pound of fruitcake.
So that's, uh, that's a pretty significant shift, um,
in sort of the total cost per pound of fruitcake, uh,
when you're talking about a nearly three xing of just that price.
Sure. So, uh, you know, Noah, we have to get to our first break.
We'll be back after, uh, a brief message from, uh,
those who have sponsored us today. And when we come back,
I want to talk a little bit, uh, move from talking about, uh,
commodity markets to game theory,
but we'll do that after this brief break.
You are listening to commonalities where guests find common ground through
uncommon conversations.
We'll be back after this brief break to recognize our sponsors.
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Hello, Uniontown Mayor, bill Gerkey here.
There's nothing quite like the feeling of home, that sense of belonging,
those fall Friday nights under the lights, those winter nights in the gym,
watching our red Raiders,
those refreshing spring afternoons at Bailey Park rooting on our Red Raider
softball and baseball teams.
I am grateful for those memories and hope our community's children and
grandchildren can enjoy those memories too. But to do that,
we have to plan for the future. During my first term in office,
the city has got Bailey Park back to a place where we can be proud of.
Begun our city's first comprehensive plan in over 20 years.
Started work on the city section of the Sheep Skin Trail,
worked on eliminating blighted properties and are rebuilding the city's
neighborhoods. We've updated the faulty equipment in the parking garages,
and we're bringing a more competitive, reliable, faster,
and less expensive internet service to our city residents. We have done a lot,
but there's still more to do. So, I Bill Gerkey. I'm running for a second term.
We're Uniontown proud, we're Uniontown strong,
and together we can continue to rebuild Uniontown for the next generation.
Paid.
For by Mayor Bill.
Gerkey.
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Thanks for staying with us here on commonalities. I'm your host, Matt Dowling,
alongside Noah Healy,
a professional algorithm developer and recreational mathematician.
That means he does what many of us put off, uh,
mathematics just for fun, and, uh,
and he's an expert in his field. Before we went to the break, we mentioned,
uh, uh, something called game theory,
and I wanna talk a little bit about game theory and, uh,
allow Noah to explain to us how he practices mathematics in
relation to game theory.
Uh, well, sure. Game theory is the mathematics of strategy,
and in particular,
how a system evolves and how decision making evolves when there's more
than one decision maker, uh,
which of course is normally how things work out.
Usually there's more than one person that's that that has interests,
and so merely trying to do what you want to do isn't,
isn't gonna work out that well. Um, in,
in sort of board games, uh, like chess or tic-tac toe,
one of the first lessons to teach is that, um,
wishful strategies aren't really that valuable. Um,
if you make a move hoping that your opponent won't see what you're trying to do,
so that you can win, um, in the very beginning of a game,
that might work out for you. But as,
as you and your opponents become more sophisticated,
they're likely to see what you're trying to do.
And so making moves that depend on your opponent's failures become
less desirable as moves. Um,
where game theory really shines is that,
uh,
virtually everything can be thought about in terms of
an interested decision maker.
And so other kinds of problems like
how to carry out computations, how to carry out communications,
how to carry out calculations, uh,
how to do physics can be done considering nature
as a player in the game, or, uh,
considering the network as a player in the game that has interest that it's
attempting to, to carry out.
And then you are doing other things to try to get what you want out
of this system that's trying to get what it wants. Um, and for markets,
this is particularly important because essentially in the marketplace,
there are three key
factors that each person has access to. There's currency money,
um, there's the good or service that's being provided within the marketplace,
but then there's information,
information about what pricing levels are
of value to yourself and others.
And right now,
we only address that third part of the marketplace. Emergently.
Um, existing markets basically require many, many people to buy and sell.
So many in fact,
that some people are merely buying and selling and don't actually
make or use the thing that they're trading. Um,
but with game theory,
we can come up with an interest for those informed parties,
which include the, the makers, include the users,
but also include independent experts that that research and study
and, and keep up with, you know, the news and trends and so on.
Um, and allow basically the entire
interested community in the market to merge their
information together into a supermind, uh,
that can then be used and accessed by every individual
within the market. So it's not just you out there making some cookies,
it's a sort of
virtual corporation of everyone and what they want
trying to find the best level for society to operate at.
So what I'm kind of picking up from our conversation is the,
the crux of what we're getting at is that individuals that are buying and
selling and not producing it all, um,
those are the people that are trading in the commodities market.
Those are the middle men, those are the people that, um,
are driving costs up. So correct me if I'm wrong,
in the system that you're proposing,
we would kind of be eliminating those middle men, uh,
or making them less relevant. Is that correct?
It's not exactly that. So they have existed for centuries.
What's causing them to drive costs up today is that technology
has enabled them to do their jobs better without
simultaneously increasing the competitive forces that would
keep them sort of in their lane.
So what I'm doing is creating a new system where
they basically have their own dedicated road, um,
and they can go out there and just play the game among
themselves.
And so rather than having a situation
where you've got sort of Olympic athletes competing with children and winning
by larger and larger margins, um,
the Olympic athletes have to go compete with each other.
And while it's still very relevant,
what they're doing is important to the marketplace as a whole,
it's no longer the case that they can sort of bully people who are not
at their level. Um,
instead they have to provide the actual service that they're,
they're supposed to provide within the marketplace,
which is this information and security, uh,
which is what's valuable about the market.
So, you know, if, if I am the common everyday American,
the Pennsylvanian that, uh, that goes to work for eight hours a day and,
and comes home and is raising children,
why would a topic like this interest me?
Or why should it be important to me? You know, what kind of,
what is the relevance in daily life to, uh, to considering things this way?
So market costs are a,
a drag on economic output of the country. And,
um, for the last number that I've got from the US government,
commodity market overheads, uh, are just,
we're just shy of 800 billion a year,
and that was eight years ago. Um,
if you think about the actual growth rate of the economy,
um, the, the sort of smeared out average over the last 30 years, you know,
whether we're in a recession, whether or not we're in a recession,
that's sort of irrelevant for decades. Actually,
for the last 50 years, we've been growing at around 2% a year. Um,
which means that the growth rate of the entire economy is in the
four to 500 billion a year range.
If that cost of 800 billion,
which is almost certainly significantly higher now with inflation and even more
technology, uh, were to be reduced by even 50%,
that would go directly onto the
lifestyles of individual, uh, uh, you know,
regular nine to five Americans. So a,
you could see 25 to 40% increases
in farm, uh, uh, profits, for example. Um, so a,
a middle class family could become an upper class family just overnight from
things like this. And then that ripples through the rest of the community as,
as suddenly that becomes a better employment option,
or the increased wealth leads to other types of,
of investments that then feed back into the system. So
the,
the success and adoption of this technology could
double the rate at which the economy grows in a fashion
which directly impacts working in middle class families.
And that would,
that would shift the trajectory of wealth creation in this
country and really around the world in a fundamental way. For,
you know, the last market system lasted for 800 years. Uh,
so for centuries to come, the,
the potential upsides here are difficult
to wrap your, your head around. Um,
I can't really even fully conceive of how much advantage is to
be gained from squeezing hundreds of billions of dollars
in cost out of the system every year,
and being able to put that into people's pockets and,
and into their lifestyles.
So we have to get one more break in when we come back from the break. I,
I wanna discuss, um,
the implementation process or what conversations
need to take place, um, to take advantage of,
of some of the ways that you're talking about squeezing, uh,
extra money out of the system.
But we'll do that when we come back here on commonalities.
You are listening to commonalities where guests find common ground through
uncommon conversations.
We'll be back after this brief break to recognize our sponsors.
Hello, Uniontown Mayor, bill Gerkey here.
There's nothing quite like the feeling of home, that sense of belonging,
those fall Friday nights under the lights, those winter nights in the gym,
watching our red Raiders, those refreshing spring afternoons at Bailey Park,
rooting on our Red Raider softball and baseball teams.
I am grateful for those memories and hope our community's children and
grandchildren can enjoy those memories too. But to do that,
we have to plan for the future. During my first term in office,
the city has got Bailey Park back to a place where we can be proud of.
Begun our city's first comprehensive plan in over 20 years.
Started work on the city's section of the Sheep Skin Trail,
worked on eliminating blighted properties and are rebuilding the city's
neighborhoods. We've updated the faulty equipment in the parking garages,
and we're bringing a more competitive, reliable, faster,
and less expensive internet service to our city residents.
We have done a lot, but there's still more to do. So, I Bill Gerkey,
I'm running for a second term. We're Uniontown proud, we're Uniontown strong,
and together we can continue to rebuild Uniontown for the next generation.
Paid.
For by Mayor Ky.
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online.
A girl and a guy named Slip and Sly, we're sitting in the kitchen.
Megan Rhubarb Pie was a hot commodity, a hot commodity.
The rhubarb pie was a.
Hot commodity. Thanks for staying with us. My guest today is Noah Healy,
a professional algorithm developer and a recreational mathematician.
We're talking finances today,
and we're talking about the commodities market,
as well as a new method that NOAA is proposing that would
actually squeeze some additional revenue, uh,
out of the system and would give, uh,
more money to the individuals who are producing goods to put back
into the market. So I wanna talk Noah, about practical application.
I served for six years in the Pennsylvania State House and, uh,
voted annually on a budget that was 38 plus billion dollars,
um,
not including some of the federal money that comes into the Commonwealth to be
spent, but we didn't even, uh,
have conversations like this where we're talking about ways to
improve the market system As we were discussing, um,
the state's annual budget, of course,
we talked about taxation and making things friendlier for the business
community, uh, so that businesses would want to, to come here to Pennsylvania.
But how, uh,
likely is the implementation of your proposal, uh,
to happen and what conversations need to happen at the state or federal levels,
uh, for a shift like this to really come into fruition?
Uh, well, so some of the conversations are happening around the patent office.
Um, the patent system has, is really in a state of,
of chaos at the moment, um,
due to some litigation outstanding and also decades
of difficulty in coping with the very divergent needs of
kind of big tech and big pharma, uh,
that have more or less opposite it strategies from one another and are
both of great significance to, to the economy. Um,
so I,
I might be the first person in American history to have had my patent accepted
and then had that acceptance withdrawn by internal departments
within the patent office, um, twice. Um,
happening once is rare. Um,
reinstating after one is rarer still. Um,
but, uh,
but having it withdrawn the second time is something that no one I've ever spoke
to has ever heard of. Um, that process is now going to a court for appeal.
Uh, we'll see where that goes. Um,
I am working with a handful of people around the world who are attempting to
stand up marketplaces that incorporate this technology. Um,
one of the explicit design concepts, uh,
was that governments would in fact be able to implement markets
like this for the benefit of their, their, uh,
economies if they wanted to. Uh,
the American governments at the state and federal level are extremely reluctant
to do things like that.
So I have not had conversations like that with any,
uh, uh, federal or state level person. Um,
conversations like this are important because one of the other, uh,
barriers is that I am the first person since the Renaissance to
propose a system which is algorithmically superior to the market
system that is in place.
So most people are not even aware that it's possible for
markets to have the kinds of flaws I'm talking about or for improvements
like the kinds of improvements I'm talking about to be made.
So education at state or federal levels on that front
is something that I am, I am working towards improving and trying to get,
uh, awareness out for. Um, but yeah,
Pennsylvania,
like most states in the United States has a robust
agriculture sector, uh, and an extensive extractive sector, uh,
with iron coal and other commodity product
being significant parts of the state's value chain.
Um, and so yeah,
it'd be perfectly possible for a state like Philadelphia or Pennsylvania,
sorry, to set up, uh, uh,
a pilot commodity marketplace, um,
with this technology, um, and, and offer,
its, its state producers, uh,
what it amounts to a collective bargaining position
that would allow these small,
independent producers to stand on the same level as
much larger, uh, you know, conglomerate,
agribusiness type things could, could normally operate on. Um,
that's generally more interesting to, uh,
developing countries. And so, uh, the, that's,
that's more of the focus right now of the people that are interested in trying
to pick the technology up. But I'm,
I'm open to every train leaving the station because everything's headed to the
same destination. Uh,
and the markets we have have been failing for
really almost my entire lifetime. Um, and the,
the problems are getting worse and more obvious,
and we'll keep doing so because they aren't the result
of, of human malfeasance. Um,
they're the result of technological capability,
and we are not going to, you know,
collectively throw our cell phones away.
So we're gonna keep having that capacity, uh,
and that's gonna keep degrading the markets we have.
Well, you know, first, don't, uh,
don't feel bad about trying to make Philadelphia its own state here within the
Commonwealth as we address problems. Uh, one of the things that we, we,
we see a lot is that, uh,
Philadelphia is unlike the rest of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in
many ways, and has some unique challenges and also unique opportunities.
Um, but that being said, you know,
the method that you're proposing and what you're talking about makes production
more profitable and increases the economic potential for
everyone involved. So, you know, where is the downside?
Who are the people that would fight a proposal like this? Um,
who would it inconvenience? Who would not wanna see this happen?
Uh, well, you know,
everybody's conservative about the thing that they know best. Uh,
so people who are highly successful within the existing system are highly
resistant to the notion that it is a problem. Um,
this is a,
a sort of psychological block that I deal with when I talk to traders.
They can't see that their incomes actually come from
other people's costs. They just think, oh,
I'm trading into this abstract market of traders. I'm good at my job,
and so I make money. It's good to make money.
It's good for people to be good at my job, therefore everything's fine.
Um, but service provision is a tricky business because
part of the value of a service is its cost. Um,
if, if you break your arm and go to the doctor and get it reset,
that's, that's great. You know, you're gonna keep having the use of your arm,
but if you get that for a hundred dollars,
it's better than if you get it for a million dollars, um,
because it's the same service either way, and it's cheaper at a hundred dollars.
And so if a service can be provided for less actual money,
it's more valuable. But people that are providing that service,
they can't always get there. Um,
the other big shift this does is by
essentially batching up all production, all consumption,
and all information into these marketplaces where
people are competing with one another. Um,
that shifts the hedging risk structure because now the
batches are,
are much more intrinsically edged because they're much more intrinsically
diversified than existing markets can offer. Um,
and there are very successful companies that
effectively do nothing but ensure these hedging risks.
And so a marketplace that structurally eliminates that structurally eliminates
the need for those companies.
So they would have a direct interest in resisting this kind of technology.
So we're getting back down to about the last two minutes of our program today,
and I want to let you, uh, interject any closing thoughts you have.
But before you do that,
if someone wanted to learn more about anything we've discussed today,
uh, what are some resources? I,
I know with the internet there are a lot of resources out there, um,
on the worldwide web.
Where could someone find more information about commodity markets
and, uh, about the system that, uh,
that you currently have a patent pending for?
Uh, well, I have a website@corddisk.com,
C O O R D I S C, uh, for coordinated discovery.
You can learn more about my system there. Uh,
you can reach out to me personally, uh, either through LinkedIn,
I'm Noah Healy there, or Noah p healy yahoo.com is my email.
I'm happy to answer questions, um, for learning more about commodity markets.
Wikipedia's article is actually fine,
and you can start working your way through, you know, the,
the bibliography there for other things, or in fact, uh,
if you're fine with eighties rated r comedies, trading Places,
um,
has several fantastic scenes where they explain as if to
a child how commodity markets work and, um,
the, the World Trade Center, or this was after the World Trade Center,
actually the after nine 11, the, the reconstructed building, um,
actually did a, uh,
like documentary short with Dan Akroyd,
I think about 10 years ago, um,
where they, they were talking about how things are done these days,
and the fact that trading places
it couldn't happen in the same way because the pits are gone.
It's all computers now,
but the actual mechanisms of trade haven't changed at all.
We're just using computers to do the trades at a a
million times greater speed, uh,
than than we used to do when we were shouting at each other.
That is actually a, a, a great movie. I just watched Trading Places, uh,
this past year, uh, founded on a streaming service, so I know it's out there.
Um, and it does really give some good insight into,
into the Commod commodities market. Hey, uh,
my guest today has been Noah Healy,
a professional algorithm developer and recreational mathematician.
Noah, we have about 30 seconds left. Final thoughts for the day?
Um, I,
I I outta words, uh, happy New Year, everybody. Uh,
and, um, you know, let's,
let's hope we can start fixing up these systems that computers are breaking
down, uh, in the new Year.
Yeah. And that's gonna become even more important I think,
as we move forward and as technology continues to play an even greater
role in our daily lives. Noah, thank you so much for being with me today.
It has been, uh, a.
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Thank you for listening to commonalities.
Hello Uniontown Mayor, bill Gerkey here.
There's nothing quite like the feeling of home, that sense of belonging,
those fall Friday nights under the lights, those winter nights in the gym,
watching our red Raiders, those refreshing spring afternoons at Bailey Park,
rooting on our Red Raider, softball and baseball teams.
I am grateful for those memories and hope our community's children and
grandchildren can enjoy those memories too. But to do that,
we have to plan for the future. During my first term in office,
the city has got Bailey Park back to a place where we can be proud of.
Begun our city's first comprehensive plan in over 20 years.
Started work on the city's section of the Sheep Skin Trail,
worked on eliminating blighted properties and are rebuilding the city's
neighborhoods. We've updated the faulty equipment in the parking garages,
and we're bringing a more competitive, reliable, faster,
and less expensive internet service to our city residents.
We have done a lot, but there's still more to do. So I Bill Gerkey.
I'm running for a second term. We're Uniontown proud. We're Uniontown strong,
and together we can continue to rebuild Uniontown for the next generation.
Paid for by Mayor Bill.